Een sekundaire analyse van straflijsten

Samenvatting

In the article "Typen jeugddelinquenten: een empirisch onderzoek," (Types of juvenile delinquents: an empirical investigation," Nederlands tijdschrift voor criminologie, 1968, jun, 105-120), W. Buikhuisen and R. W. Jongman conclude that it is possible to identify specific recidivists. This was determined on the basis of analysis of all 21 year-old Dutch delinquents who were sentenced in 1964 and had at least 3 offenses on their record. The types of offenses differentiated are: property, sexual, traffic, and assault. In the original study, there was a higher number of delinquents where the subsequent crimes were of the same category (specific recidivism) as the first crime than would be expected by chance. If, however, distinction is made between the possibility of prediction and the certainty of prediction, the results of the study do not unequivocally argue for specific recidivism. Over 50% (346) of the 669 cases studied involved specific recidivism. However, a large number of these would have been expected simply on the basis of chance. The problems with prediction would be further complicated if delinquents who had committed only 1 or 2 offenses were considered. In Een sekundaire analyse van straflijsten: enige aanvullende opmerkingen (A secondary analysis of criminal records - some additional comments) W. Buikhuisen and R. W. Jongman claim that their original article was an attempt to find out if there are specific kinds of delinquents. It was not believed that all delinquents commit the same type of crimes, but that there is a relationship between the 1st crime committed and subsequent crimes. There are more records with violations of a particular type than would be expected by chance, and the phenomenon of specific recidivism does exist. 5 tables. P. Tiersma.