Globalisering of transitie? En lange-termijnvisie op de ontwikkelingsgang van het wereldsysteem

Samenvatting

Globalization or the Age of Transition? A Long-Term View of the Trajectory of the World-System. Criticizes the notion of globalization as a recent phenomenon and argues instead that the present age is an age of transition of the capitalist world-system. Two time frameworks are distinguished. The first, 1945-1990s, is characterized by a typical Kondratieff cycle with two parts: an A-phase of economic expansion (1945-1973) and a B-phase of contraction (1973-present). The same period has been marked by the rise and decline of US hegemony. The second period, since 1450, refers to the long-term development of the capitalist world-system. Three secular trends are putting increasing structural pressures on the system's capacity for capital accumulation: (1) The supply of new cheap labor is decreasing because of the deruralization of the world. (2) The possibilities for capitalist firms to externalize costs by waste dumping and pollution of the environment are diminishing. (3) Taxation levels are rising because of growing popular demands for education, health care, and income guarantees. For these reasons, the capitalist world-system is now entering its terminal crisis, leaving the future uncertain and open to human intervention and creativity. Adapted from the source document.