Ontwikkelingen in de opbrengsten van diploma's op de arbeidsmarkt: structurele veranderingen én veranderde samenhang?


  • Wolbers,Maarten H. J.
  • Graaf,Paul M. de
  • Ultee,Wout C.




In this article we examine whether decreasing returns to educational credentials can simply be explained by changes in the distributions of the labour force according to educational attainment and level of occupation (structural changes), or that these should also be attributed to shifted preferences of employers and employees which modify the net association between schooling and level of occupation. In order to answer this question we use data from the 1960 Census and four Labour Force Surveys as held in 1973, 1977, 1985, and 1991. A loglinear analysis showed that the net association between education and occupation has increased since 1960. We conclude that the process of credential inflation is not only the result of structural changes, but also the outcome of shifted preferences of both employers and employees. These shifted preferences are largely connected with the business cycle: in times of high unemployment levels employers increasingly select employees on education. We also found some support for the modernisation theory, but as soon as we account for the business cycle the impact of modernisation becomes non-significant. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]; Copyright of Mens en Maatschappij is the property of Amsterdam University Press and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Biografieën auteurs

Wolbers,Maarten H. J.

Graaf,Paul M. de

Ultee,Wout C.