Het versomberde toekomstbeeld in Nederland (1958-1975). Toepassing van Log-Lineaire analyse en van hiërarchische modellenbouw op gegevens uit twee steekproeven

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A method of statistical analysis of trends is presented. It consists in taking, as the basis of evaluation, the logarithm of ratio of odds. When the same question is presented to the same population at two different times, one gets a changing ratio of odds. One must then construct a model in which the interaction of all the factors that effect this change are identified. This method is illustrated by an example: the analysis of the changing perception of the future in the Netherlands. The answers to a number of questions from a survey done in 1958 are compared with the answers to the same questions asked in 1975. The results indicate an increase in pessimism over the seventeen-year period. This result is all the more striking in that questions directed at the Rs' perceptions of their own future yielded answers as optimistic or even more optimistic in 1975 than in 1958. Pessimism is not a characteristic of the younger generation alone. Increased pessimism is paralleled by an increase in levels of formal education & a decrease of the church-affiliated population (particularly among Roman Catholics). 3 Figures, 11 Tables. A. Orianne.