An analysis of the quality of guerrilla warfare & its effect on armies engaged in it
Samenvatting
Every army is influenced by (a) the conflict in which it is engaged (or for which it is preparing itself), (2) the society in which it stands. To illustrate this relation of conflict-army-society, guerilla warfare is viewed as a special form of armed conflict. There are 3 phases of armed conflict: rebellion, guerilla warfare, & regulated conventional warfare. 2 types of armed conflict can be distinguished: the 1st, in which military-strategical goals predominate, & the 2nd in which the military action is a pol'al instrument in attaining ideological goals. The core of analyzing guerilla warfare is the predictability of behavior. Unpredictability is a very important basis of power in an armed conflict; it is this power that sometimes makes the numerically & technologically weakest party in the conflict the superior one. Predictability & a fixed strategy depend upon: (a) the extent & complexity of the army org, (b) the nature, extent & complexity of battle equipment, (c) lack of fanaticism & enthusiasm, & (d) professionalization of staff. Besides the influence on an army of the conflict in which it is engaged, the influence of the society in which it stands is important, esp the relation of the army to the elites of the society. This relation can be one of congruency--concentration of power, wealth & prestige--or one of incongruency, in which case the elites have to protect themselves against the army by means of indoctrination, privileges or physical power (police). Another important influence is the society's definition of the conflict. War can be defined as absolute war, instrumental war, & antagonistic war. An essential variable in this typology is the involvement of the pop, largest in the abslute war, zero in the antagonistic war. In absolute warfare a conscription army is the most efficient instrument; instrumental warfare, such as the wars in Korea & Vietnam, lack motivation from society as a whole & cannot be successful with a conscription army. H. Van de Belt.
